The international debate on a Green New Deal (Ban Ki Moon, Achim Steiner, Nicholas Stern et al) takes place just in time. The economic Tsunami which today is devastating the world economy is much more than just a widespread recession. It marks the end of an old model for economic growth and the beginning of a new era. What we are now talking about is a structural change in the industrial system and the financial markets, a historical turn from unsustainable, destructive growth to sustainable growth.

The concept of a Green New Deal is based on two fundamental ideas: First, we should look at the current crisis as an opportunity to implement forward looking policies instead of just muddling through. In the Greek as well as in the Chinese tradition, crisis also means “Katharsis”, a turning point in the life of individuals and societies. Instead of being scared, we should embrace the current crisis as an opportunity to transform an outdated model of economic growth into something new.

Second, the Green New Deal is about anticipation of future trends and developments: we need long term oriented, foresighted policies in order to meet the fundamental challenges our societies face. Looking forward 20, 30, 40 years seems to be quite a speculative task; but in fact most of the developments which will shape our future in the medium term are already in place.

Particularly this is the case with

• Climate Change, which according to new scientific findings is happening more rapidly then initially anticipated. This was predicted in the last report of the International Panel on Climate Change)
• A shortage of the natural resources on which economic growth has been based, in particular oil (which still is the source for roughly one third of total global energy consumption)
• Demographic trends: European societies will get older, whereas the global population will grow rapidly.
• The global shift to a knowledge-based economy, where education, research and the development of new technologies are becoming the main sources of economic successAnd last but not least, the emergence of new economic and political giants, especially China, which raises the question of what the global division of labour will look like in the future. Pioneering the upcoming green industrial revolution will provide early mover advantages and offer new opportunities to Europe and the US.

Against this background, the first pillar of the Green New Deal is the promotion of energy efficiency, a switch to renewable energies, and a new generation of low carbon technologies and products. Such a shift will hand multiple dividends to our societies:

• Greening the economy is imperative if we are to avoid chaotic climate change. In order to keep global warming within a range of 2 degrees Celsius, we need to reduce global greenhouse-gases by at least by 50% by mid-century. At the same time, however, global GDP will approximately double as a result of steep global population growth (the current population of 6.3 billion is estimated to grow to about 9 billion human beings), and the enormous appetite for raised living standards, especially by those on the economic margins. If we take these global trends into account, it is clear that no growth is simply not an option. Rather, the challenge we have to master is to decouple economic growth from the over-consumption of natural resources. Sounds like quadrupling the circle – and will only take place through a fully fledged green industrial revolution.
• The transition towards an economy based on renewable energy sources will, while improving energy security, allow us to spend trillions of dollars on domestic jobs and services instead of feeding oil-based autocracies in the Middle East, Central Asia or Latin America.

Going green will offer big opportunities to entrepreneurs and workers alike – as can be seen by what happened in Germany within the last decade. Today, in Germany, there are about 1.8 million jobs in the green sector, about 270.000 in the renewable energy-sector alone, and we are confident that by 2020, these figures will double – by which time green industries will have become the leading sector of Germany’s economy. The German concept of a “Feed-In Tariff” played an important role in that success story. Meanwhile it has been adopted by almost 30 countries all over the word.

Critics of the idea of a Green New Deal usually argue that we (or more precisely: the bulk of enterprises) could not afford ambitious climate – and environment measures in the midst of a deep economic crisis. Therefore green projects like auctioning CO-2-Emission-Allowances or the introduction of eco-taxes should be postponed until the economy has recovered. 

But if we put on hold serious efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions until the economic crisis is resolved, we would not only be irresponsible in terms of climate policy. We would also squander a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to lay the groundwork for a new wave of sustainable growth. It’s just the other way around: those economies and single companies who invest in new, green technologies, products and services now – will weather the economic storm best.

Up to now, governments have moved towards greener economies with very different determination and speed. If you compare the current economic-recovery-programs, which mobilise hundreds of billions of dollars in a desperate effort to stop the economic depression, only a few governments have tailored their programmes along green criteria and targets. The green frontrunner is – maybe surprisingly – South Korea, where more than 75% of spending is linked to sustainable projects and purposes (in particular public transport). Not less surprisingly, China has dedicated almost a third of its 450 billion dollar programme to green projects.

European governments as well as the US have been much more reluctant (or ignorant) in terms of greening their stimulus-packages. We are about to miss a historical opportunity to drive forward in a new, sustainable direction. If the German Greens will have the opportunity to join the next federal government, their main purpose will be to inject more green substance into public spending.

The second pillar of a Green New Deal is the provision of massive investments in human resources. This includes enhanced child care, education, research and job training. Thus the promise of upward mobility may be restored by offering all citizens the opportunity to better themselves through their own efforts. At the same time, making education one of our top priorities will enable our societies to manage the transition to a knowledge-based era and to maintain a high degree of innovation.

Finally: How can we extend the concept of a Green New Deal to the developing world? To reduce CO-2-emissions can’t be an obligation of the “old” industrial countries alone. If we want to turn around global greenhouse-gas-emissions by 2020 (and according to the findings of the International Panel on Climate Change that is what is needed to avoid tipping point-effects), it’s essential that emerging economies are ready to cap their greenhouse-gas-emissions in the short term, and to reduce them in the long term.

This will only happen once we develop a consensus about what constitutes a fair modus of burden sharing linked to the transition towards low-carbon-societies and how to exploit the opportunities this shift offers. We must set incentives for developing countries not to devastate their forests. We must find ways to increase energy efficiency in big leaps. Renewable energies must not remain a domain of the highly industrialised countries – they offer promising solutions, particularly for rural areas in the developing world.

At the same time, poor countries must be assisted to improve their education systems, from kindergarten through to the universities: in the long run, it is not the natural resources of a country that matter, but its human resources.

All these issues depend on agreements on technological and financial transfers from the highly industrialised world to developing countries – a difficult task, especially in times of financial trouble, plunging revenues and rising public debt levels.

The introduction of an international emissions-trading-system (based on restricted allowances for CO-2-emissions which have to be bought by major polluters) will help to raise funds to be redistributed to developing countries.

A promising pilot project in the area of renewable energy is currently being developed by European and Middle Eastern partners. It’s about the installation of highly effective Solar Thermal Power Stations in the Sahara on a large scale. The potential for solar power in the desert zones of North Africa is huge – more than enough to supply the energy needs of the respective partner countries as well as meet a substantial portion of Europe’s electricity needs.

We need more of these pioneering projects. There are many opportunities to exploit: off shore wind, highly concentrated solar power, geothermal, tide and wave–energy. Part of the broader picture also has to be a new generation of biofuels, based on organic waste, thus avoiding the fatal competition between food production and energy plants.

These are great challenges for scientists, entrepreneurs, trade unions, engineers, house builders, farmers, transport companies, city developers, teachers – and politicians.

New alliances and bold innovations are needed in every sphere of our economic, political and social life. If we are able to meet these challenges, our world will become a better place. If not, future generations will hold us responsible.